The joint leaders of Serie A, Juventus & Inter Milan, both faced tricky games this past weekend against Champions League hopefuls. Inter hosted Atalanta before Juventus traveled to A.S. Roma later in the day.
Inter came out quickly and their strike duo of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez combined in the fourth minute as Martinez put the home side ahead. Atalanta only had a few shots before missing a great chance in the 40th minute. From there on Atalanta pressed for their equalizer and it was thoroughly deserved when Robin Gosens hooked in at the far post on 75 minutes.
Atalanta had a great chance to steal all three points but Samir Handanovic’s spectacular save on Luis Muriel’s 88th minute penalty kick saved a point for Inter. Our shot map shows Atalanta deserving of the victory even without the penalty, and the expected win percentage makes it even more clear.
Inter’s slip up not only allowed Juventus the chance to go clear at the top in Rome, but leaves Lazio only 4 points behind in third with a game in hand.
Juventus came out fast and were 2-0 up within 10 minutes. A smart Merih Demiral volley and a Cristiano Ronaldo penalty gave them the early foothold from which Roma were never able to come back.
Juventus only managed 3 shots after the first 10 minutes, as they were happy to hold on to their lead. Roma peppered the goal with 20 shots over the 90 minutes, but all of which yielded low xGs. A penalty kick halved the deficit and gave them a chance, but they weren’t able to convert their final big chance to snatch a draw.
Our simulations suggest that Roma were the well better team over the match, and it was just as likely that Roma won by 3 clear goals as losing by the odd goal. Both teams will leave with a sour taste in their mouths, though, due to two bad injuries. Merih Demiral and Nicolo Zaniolo both went down with knee ligament injuries that will end their seasons and keep them out of Euro 2020.
Both Inter and Juventus held on, and rode their luck, but Juventus’ ability to win even while playing poorly is the mark of a team that knows what it takes to win a league title. Inter are still hot on their heels, though, and with Lazio potentially joining the title race, it’s going to be an interesting final few months in Italy.
Becker Sports Graphics 