When Karim Benzema scored his second goal late on against Paris Saint-Germain, the points looked destined to go to Real Madrid, and control of the group was still in the balance. A quick fire double from Mbappe and Sarabia turned that around, though, and PSG win Group A with one match to spare.
A rare error from Varane, possibly caused by Courtois, let Mbappe score with one of the highest xG’s he’ll have all season and Calabria’s perfectly placed first time finish into the top corner did the rest. The perfect narrative almost came to pass as an unbelievable free kick from Gareth Bale almost won it for Madrid with the final kick of the game.
The shot map and running xG plots back up what anyone watching the game will attest to: Real Madrid were incredibly unlucky to not be even further out of sight before PSG’s late comeback. They were so dominant that our win percentage plots, taken from 10,000 simulations of all the shots in the game, only gave PSG at 1.8% chance of getting a draw, and a de facto 0% chance of winning the game. PSG won’t care though, as they came into the Bernabeu and left as group winners. Will this be the year they stop flattering to deceive in Europe?
Becker Sports Graphics 