What is going on with Spurs?

The standout result from this week’s European Champions League round 2 was without a doubt Bayern Munich’s 7-2 away win at last year’s finalists Tottenham Hotspur. The result is just the latest in a, now scarily lengthy, downturn in form for Spurs over the entire calendar year. It was perhaps masked by their incredible run to the final last year, but their Premier League form has been borderline relegation level.

A look at the running xG plot for the game might look surprising for anyone who didn’t watch the game. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Bayern were fortunate to not be behind at halftime, let alone up 2-1. Heung-Min Son in particularly was a constant threat for Spurs early on. So where and how did it go so wrong?

The bottom line on the shot map shows exactly what happened. While the normal xG model gives an expected score of 1.55-1.91, with Bayern only overtaking Spurs’ cumulative xG after the 85th minute, the shot placement xG tells a very different story. Shot placement xG takes in all the same variables as our main model but also, as the title would suggest, includes the location of the shot on goal. That model gives an expected score of 1.6-4.06, significantly closer to the final result. What this tells us is that, while Spurs certainly did seem to lose their heads in the second half and fall apart, Bayern were exceptionally clinical. A shot from 25 yards is highly unlikely to provide that equalizer for Bayern in the first half, but a shot placed where Kimmich put it is almost impossible for a keeper to reach.

Spurs were certainly unlucky to run into a team with (former Arsenal player) Serge Gnabry scoring practically every time he touched the ball, but it’s also not at all surprising to see Robert Lewandoski scoring the goals he did on Tuesday. This is the level you get in the Champions League and now Spurs have an uphill battle after only picking up 1 point from the first two games. Luckily for them, they have plenty of experience from being in an even worse position last season at this point!

While the sky may seem like it’s falling, and we’re quick to identify crises as soon as a team has a poor game or two, Spurs are only 1 point back of 4th place in the Premier League right now and a weekend game at Brighton might be exactly what they need to get back on track. Worrying times for Spurs fans but the ship isn’t necessarily sinking yet.